Turning carbon market narratives into financial exposure
Institutional-grade data and analytics to quantify how compliance carbon markets impact firm-level revenues, costs, and financial risk
Our Vision
Transition Metrics delivers institutional-grade carbon market intelligence , enabling investors to quantify compliance carbon exposure with precision. Our bottom-up datasets turn carbon costs into a hard financial metric, embedded directly into the assessment of corporate fundamentals instead of a soft sustainability overlay.
We provide a realistic, data-driven view of how carbon pricing impacts global companies, empowering financial institutions to price transition risk, capture opportunity, and invest with confidence.
Our Products
Carbon Market Exposure as a Service
Trusted carbon market expertise built on 20+ years of regulatory and trading experience.
Transition Metrics
Core
Global Carbon Price Exposure Data
Institutional-grade bottom-up datasets quantifying compliance carbon cost exposure across 4,000+ corporates worldwide, built from 30+ primary sources.
Market-specific regimes
Facility-level mapping
Cost pass-through analytics
Transition Metrics
Signal
Investor Analytics Suite
Portfolio intelligence to identify which companies thrive or struggle in a high carbon price future. Integrate carbon pricing directly into valuation, risk, and return models.
Winner/loser screening
100+ price scenarios
Workflow-ready API outputs
Transition Metrics
Navigator
Advisory & Client Intelligence
A structured intelligence service enabling banks and consultants to surface carbon pricing themes, benchmark corporates, and build client-ready transition narratives.
Multi-region coverage incl. CBAM
Peer benchmarking themes
Backed by senior experts
Transition Metrics
Carbon Club
The leading forum at the intersection of finance and carbon markets.
The Transition Metrics Carbon Club brings together on a bi-monthly basis senior professionals from investing, banking, advisory, regulation, and academia to exchange insights on compliance carbon markets and the evolving transition landscape.
Through curated roundtables, expert keynotes, and peer-level discussion, we provide an exclusive space to explore the risks and opportunities emerging from carbon pricing.
Transition Metrics Research
We publish independent research on transition risk, sector exposure, and capital alignment to support institutional decision-making.Our reports combine proprietary analytics with sector-level insight to provide practical, data-driven perspectives on transition dynamics.
EU ETS Reform 2026 – Free Allocation at an Inflection Point
The 2026 benchmark update, combined with the CBAM phase-in, marks a structural shift for EU industry. Based on our installation-level modelling, free allocation could decline from ~517m EUAs in 2025 to ~282m EUAs by 2030 implying up to ~€103bn in reduced implicit subsidy value across sectors over 2026–2030.What this means in practice:
Less free allocation, higher uncovered emissions
Rising cash compliance costs
Increasing intra-sector margin dispersion
Carbon efficiency and hedge positioning becoming core valuation drivers
In our view, compliance carbon is transitioning from a policy variable to a primary earnings driver for energy-intensive sectors.
Jan Ahrens
Carbon trader turned analyst with 20 years of experience in compliance carbon markets in the EU, US and Asia.
Speaker and advisor to regulators
Lecturer at top 10 universities globally
Contact
Transition Metrics GmbH
Gartenäckerweg 10
76229 Karlsruhe
Germany
© Transition Metrics GmbH
Legal Notice
Transition Metrics GmbH ▪ Gartenäckerweg 10, 76229 Karlsruhe, Germany
Managing Directors: Philipp Ruf, Jan Friedrich Ahrens
+49 176 55769708 ▪ [email protected] ▪ www.transitionmetrics.com
Registered in Handelsregister B Amtsgericht Mannheim ▪ HRB 757793
Responsible for content in accordance with § 55 Abs. 2 RStV
Transition Metrics GmbH, Gartenäckerweg 10, 76229 Karlsruhe
Impressum
Transition Metrics GmbH ▪ Gartenäckerweg 10, 76229 Karlsruhe, Germany
Geschäftsführer: Philipp Ruf, Jan Friedrich Ahrens
+49 176 55769708 ▪ [email protected] ▪ www.transitionmetrics.com
Eingetragen im Handelsregister B Amtsgericht Mannheim ▪ HRB 757793
Verantwortlich für den Inhalt nach § 55 Abs. 2 RStV
Transition Metrics GmbH, Gartenäckerweg 10, 76229 Karlsruhe
Disclaimer
Liability for Content
The contents of our website have been compiled with the utmost care. However, we cannot guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided. As a service provider, we are responsible for our own content on these pages in accordance with § 7 Abs. 1 TMG. According to §§ 8 to 10 TMG, however, we are not obligated to monitor transmitted or stored third-party information or to investigate circumstances that indicate illegal activity.
Liability for Links
Our website contains links to external third-party websites over whose content we have no control. Therefore, we cannot accept any liability for these external contents. The respective provider or operator of the linked pages is always responsible for their content. The linked pages were checked for possible legal violations at the time of linking. Illegal content was not recognizable at the time of linking. However, permanent monitoring of the content of linked pages is not reasonable without concrete evidence of an infringement. Upon notification of violations, we will remove such links immediately.
Copyright
The content and works created by the site operators on these pages are subject to German copyright law. Duplication, processing, distribution, or any form of commercialization of such material beyond the scope of the copyright law requires the prior written consent of its respective author or creator. Downloads and copies of this site are only permitted for private, non-commercial use.
Privacy
For information on data protection, please refer to our Privacy Policy.
Privacy Policy
Transition Metrics GmbH
Last updated: March 2026
1. Responsible Entity (Controller)
The controller responsible for data processing on this website is:
Transition Metrics GmbH
Gartenäckerweg 10, 76229 Karlsruhe, Germany
Email: [email protected]2. Data We Collect
We collect and process personal data only when you actively provide it or when it is automatically generated during your visit:
• Contact form: name, email address, and message content
• Technical data: IP address, browser type, operating system, date and time of access, referring URL — collected automatically for security and hosting purposes3. Purpose of Processing
We process your data for the following purposes:
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• To maintain business communication with clients and prospects
• To ensure the security and proper functioning of our website4. Legal Basis
Processing is carried out on the following legal bases under the GDPR:
• Art. 6(1)(b) GDPR — processing is necessary for the performance of a contract or pre-contractual measures
• Art. 6(1)(f) GDPR — processing is necessary for the purposes of our legitimate interests (website security, communication)5. Data Retention
We retain your personal data only for as long as necessary to fulfil the purposes for which it was collected:
• Contact form data: retained for up to 3 years after last contact, or as required by applicable retention obligations
• Technical/log data: retained for up to 30 days for security purposes, then deleted
• Data subject to statutory retention obligations (e.g. commercial and tax records) will be retained for the legally required period (generally 6–10 years under German law)6. Hosting & Data Transfers
This website is hosted via Carrd.co. As a result, personal data may be processed on servers located outside the European Union. Carrd relies on Standard Contractual Clauses (SCCs) approved by the European Commission to ensure an adequate level of data protection for such transfers.
For more information, please refer to Carrd's privacy policy at: https://carrd.co/privacy7. Cookies & Tracking
We do not use tracking cookies, analytics tools, or advertising technologies on this website. If this changes in the future, this policy will be updated accordingly.8. Your Rights
Under the GDPR, you have the following rights regarding your personal data:
• Right of access (Art. 15 GDPR) — you may request confirmation of whether we process your data and obtain a copy
• Right to rectification (Art. 16 GDPR) — you may request correction of inaccurate data
• Right to erasure (Art. 17 GDPR) — you may request deletion of your data under certain conditions
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• Right to object (Art. 21 GDPR) — you may object to processing based on legitimate interests
• Right to withdraw consent (Art. 7(3) GDPR) — where processing is based on consent, you may withdraw it at any time without affecting the lawfulness of prior processingTo exercise any of these rights, please contact us at: [email protected]9. Right to Lodge a Complaint
You have the right to lodge a complaint with the competent supervisory authority at any time. The authority responsible for Transition Metrics GmbH is:Landesbeauftragter für den Datenschutz und die Informationsfreiheit Baden-Württemberg (LfDI)
Lautenschlagerstraße 20, 70173 Stuttgart, Germany
Website: www.baden-wuerttemberg.datenschutz.de
Email: [email protected]
Datenschutzerklärung
Transition Metrics GmbH
Last updated: March 2026
1. Verantwortliche Stelle
Verantwortlich für die Datenverarbeitung auf dieser Website ist:
Transition Metrics GmbH
Gartenäckerweg 10, 76229 Karlsruhe, Deutschland
E-Mail: [email protected]2. Erhobene Daten
Wir erheben und verarbeiten personenbezogene Daten nur, wenn Sie uns diese aktiv mitteilen oder wenn diese im Rahmen Ihres Besuchs automatisch anfallen:
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• Daten, die gesetzlichen Aufbewahrungspflichten unterliegen (z. B. Handels- und Steuerunterlagen), werden für den gesetzlich vorgeschriebenen Zeitraum aufbewahrt (in der Regel 6–10 Jahre)6. Hosting & Datenübermittlung
Diese Website wird über Carrd.co gehostet. Dabei können personenbezogene Daten auf Servern außerhalb der Europäischen Union verarbeitet werden. Carrd nutzt die von der Europäischen Kommission genehmigten Standardvertragsklauseln (SCC), um ein angemessenes Datenschutzniveau zu gewährleisten.
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Wir verwenden keine Tracking-Cookies, Analysetools oder Werbetechnologien auf dieser Website. Sollte sich dies in Zukunft ändern, wird diese Datenschutzerklärung entsprechend aktualisiert.8. Ihre Rechte
Gemäß DSGVO stehen Ihnen folgende Rechte in Bezug auf Ihre personenbezogenen Daten zu:
• Auskunftsrecht (Art. 15 DSGVO) — Sie können Auskunft darüber verlangen, ob und welche Daten wir verarbeiten
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Sie haben das Recht, sich jederzeit bei der zuständigen Datenschutzaufsichtsbehörde zu beschweren. Für die Transition Metrics GmbH zuständig ist:Landesbeauftragter für den Datenschutz und die Informationsfreiheit Baden-Württemberg (LfDI)
Lautenschlagerstraße 20, 70173 Stuttgart
Website: www.baden-wuerttemberg.datenschutz.de
E-Mail: [email protected]
EU ETS Reform 2026Free Allocation at an Inflection Point
The 2026 benchmark update, combined with the CBAM phase-in, marks a structural shift for EU industry. Based on our installation-level modelling, free allocation could decline from 520m EUAs in 2025 to 280m EUAs by 2030 implying up to €105bn in reduced implicit subsidy value across sectors over 2026–2030.What this means in practice:
Less free allocation, higher uncovered emissions
Rising cash compliance costs
Increasing intra-sector margin dispersion
Carbon efficiency and hedge positioning becoming core valuation drivers
In our view, compliance carbon is transitioning from a policy variable to a primary earnings driver for energy-intensive sectors.
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