Transition Metrics

Turning carbon market narratives into financial exposure

Institutional-grade data and analytics to quantify how compliance carbon markets impact firm-level revenues, costs, and financial risk.

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4,000+
corporates covered globally
99%+
coverage of priced emissions in Europe and North America
150+
data fields per firm
30+
years combined market experience
Our Vision

Carbon pricing as a primary earnings driver

Transition Metrics delivers institutional-grade carbon market intelligence, enabling investors to quantify compliance carbon exposure with precision.

Our bottom-up datasets turn carbon costs into a hard financial metric — embedded directly into the assessment of corporate fundamentals, not treated as a soft sustainability overlay. We provide a realistic, data-driven view of how carbon pricing impacts global companies, empowering financial institutions to price transition risk, capture opportunity, and invest with confidence.

Bottom-up data

Facility-level granularity across 30+ primary sources — not aggregated estimates.

Financial framing

Carbon costs quantified as EBITDA impact, not CO₂ tonnes. Built for analysts.

Regulatory depth

30+ years of combined ETS, trading, and policy expertise inside every model.

Institutional reach

Used by asset managers, banks, hedge funds, and regulators globally.

Our Products

Carbon market exposure as a service

One data foundation. Three intelligence products, each built for a different workflow, all powered by the same bottom-up dataset.

Intelligence layer
Lens
Filter facts from ficition
Equity Investors, Research & Traders
EU & UK ETS commentary and research — two use cases, one product
Signal
Firm-level earnings exposure
Equity Investors & Research
Portfolio-level carbon exposure analytics for equity and multi-asset teams
Co‑Pilot
Enable coverage teams on carbon
Commodity Sales
Client analytics and peer benchmarking for coverage teams
Foundation layer
Core
Award-Winning Global Carbon Price Exposure Data
4,000+ corporates · 30+ primary sources · facility-level resolution · available via API
Foundation layer

Core

The data layer underpinning every Transition Metrics product. Built from verified primary sources at facility level, not proxied or aggregated. Available directly via API for teams building their own analytical workflows.

  • Market-specific regulatory regimes across EU, UK, and North America
  • Facility-level emissions and free allocation mapping
  • Cost pass-through analytics and hedging behaviour data
  • Inventory data and trading relationships
  • 150+ data fields per firm, updated continuously
4,000+
firms covered
99%+
EU priced emission coverage
150+
data fields per firm
30+
primary sources
Intelligence products — built on Core
EU & UK ETS
Lens
Expert commentary and research on EU and UK carbon markets, calibrated for the workflows of investors and risk professionals.
  • Act with conviction on ETS developments without becoming a carbon market expert
  • Timely event commentary on what happened, the regulatory context, and price impact
  • In-depth research notes on free allocation reform, MSR mechanics, and policy scenarios
  • Monthly EU and UK ETS round-ups with global coverage
  • Ad-hoc webinars around key regulatory events
  • Stay ahead of regulatory shifts that move compliance costs and hedging requirements
  • Timely event commentary with direct implications for carbon positions and exposure
  • Scenario analysis on policy changes and their impact on allowance prices
  • Monthly round-ups covering EU, UK and selected global ETS developments
  • Searchable archive to reconstruct regulatory context behind market moves
For equity analysts, fund managers, asset owners, portfolio managers
Portfolio Analytics
Signal
Portfolio-level carbon pricing analytics for asset managers, translating compliance carbon exposure into the financial metrics that drive investment decisions.
  • Portfolio screening to surface holdings with material carbon price exposure
  • EBITDA impact quantification across 100+ carbon price scenarios
  • Sector and peer benchmarking to identify relative winners and laggards
  • Carbon cost integration into valuation and risk models via workflow-ready outputs
  • Built on Core's facility-level data — no quant buildout required
For equity analysts, fund managers, asset owners, portfolio managers
Coverage Intelligence
Co‑Pilot
Analytics platform enabling coverage teams across Markets and Banking to engage clients on carbon risk, financing, and decarbonisation advisory.
  • Screen clients to identify firms with significant carbon price exposure
  • Forecast compliance costs from company-specific metrics
  • Peer benchmarking across sectors and jurisdictions
  • White-labelled or referenced research ready for client distribution
  • Commentary via platform, API, or email
For commodity sales desks, corporate finance, advisors
Which product for which team
Equity Analyst
Lens Signal Core API
Fund Manager
Lens Signal
Portfolio Manager
Lens Signal
Risk / Carbon Trader
Lens Core API
Commodity Sales
Co-Pilot Core API
Corporate Finance
Co-Pilot
The Platform

Built for investment and trading workflows

A live look at Transition Metrics in action — from company-level compliance cost modelling to real-time analyst briefs and peer benchmarking across sectors.

Company analytics — Co-Pilot & Signal
Transition Metrics platform — company compliance cost analytics, scenario modelling and peer benchmarking
Dashboard — analyst briefs & research feed
Transition Metrics platform — analyst briefs dashboard with latest ETS commentary and company feed
Research

Independent research on transition risk and capital alignment

We publish institutional-grade research combining proprietary analytics with sector-level insight to support financial decision-making.

Latest Report — Feb 2026

EU ETS Reform 2026 — Free Allocation at an Inflection Point

The 2026 benchmark update, combined with the CBAM phase-in, marks a structural shift for EU industry. Based on our installation-level modelling, free allocation could decline from ~517m EUAs in 2025 to ~282m EUAs by 2030 — implying up to ~€103bn in reduced implicit subsidy value across sectors over 2026–2030.

  • Less free allocation, higher uncovered emissions across energy-intensive sectors
  • Rising cash compliance costs driving margin dispersion within sectors
  • Carbon efficiency and hedge positioning becoming core valuation drivers
Access Full Report
Free Research Distribution List

Receive our free round-ups and research notes directly to your inbox.

517m
EUAs free allocation
in 2025
282m
projected
by 2030
€103bn
reduced implicit
subsidy value
Carbon Club

The leading forum at the intersection of finance and carbon markets

The Transition Metrics Carbon Club brings together senior professionals from investing, banking, advisory, regulation, and academia on a bi-monthly basis.

  • Curated roundtables with expert keynotes and peer-level discussion
  • Exclusive space to explore risks and opportunities from carbon pricing
  • Participants from asset management, investment banking, policy, and academia
  • Bi-monthly cadence, structured and focused
Format & Logistics

Senior-level exchange on carbon markets and the transition landscape

Through curated roundtables, expert keynotes, and peer-level discussion, the Carbon Club provides an exclusive space for practitioners at the forefront of compliance carbon markets.

Cadence
Bi-monthly
Format
Roundtable + keynote
Audience
Senior practitioners
Access
By application
The Team

30+ years of combined expertise

Carbon markets, financial institutions, and top-tier academic research, combined into one platform.

Jan AhrensJA
Jan Ahrens
Co-Founder
Carbon trader turned analyst with 20 years of experience in compliance carbon markets across the EU, US, and Asia.
  • Speaker and advisor to regulators
  • Lecturer at top-10 universities globally
  • Former: ICIS, Noble Group
Email LinkedIn
Philipp RufPR
Philipp Ruf
Co-Founder
15 years in carbon market analytics, supporting investors, corporates, and governments in navigating compliance carbon markets.
  • Accredited expert at European Parliament and European Commission
  • Trusted advisor to global institutions
  • Former: IETA, ICIS
Email LinkedIn
Contact

Get in touch

Request access to a product, apply for Carbon Club membership, or ask us anything about carbon market exposure analytics.

Emailinfo@transitionmetrics.com
AddressTransition Metrics GmbH · Gartenäckerweg 10 · 76229 Karlsruhe, Germany
Webtransitionmetrics.com
Request access or get in touch